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Takeaways from the Ira Sohn conference

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The Ira Sohn conference took place yesterday at Lincoln Center where every year the “who’s who” of the hedge fund elite present their best stock ideas to raise money for pediatric cancer.  In recent years, the Ira Sohn conference has become something of a announcement platform for managers to disclose large activist or short positions.

 

What follows are some highlights from this year’s conference:

Kyle Bass – Haymann Capital - Dex One Corp. (DEXO) & SuperMedia (SPMD) are two yellow pages companies which went bankrupt.  The two have simultaneously come out of bankruptcy and merged to form Dex Media (DXM).  An excellent writeup can be found here. Bass is saying Dex One could could be a solid turnaround play over the next three years. “It’s a big event driven idea in our portfolio,” he says.  Bass owns about 5 million shares making him the largest hedge fund holder of this name.  But Paulson & Co. has had a similar sized position (along with some other notable investors) for quarters:

Full list of DEXO holders here

DEXO_13f

DEXO

 

Keith Meister – Corvex:  Meister founded Corvex a few years ago after working for Cark Ichan.  He’s a value-investor who typically looks for positive catalysts to unlock value in good companies. He mentioned in this year’s conference that he likes infrastructure assets (pipelines, cell towers, etc) and that the growth of mobile data is “up and to the right”.  He also said that “Carl taught me to keep things simple”

His two ideas are TW Telecom (TWTC) and Level 3 (LVLT).  He said he’ll soon disclose (via 13D) a 6% position in TWTC and he thinks the company will be bought and that the current business is massively undervalued.

He also owns 3% of Level 3 which he calls “a real estate play”. ”Level 3 reminds me of Sprint,” he says. “When people start believing in the story, we think there’s asymmetry to the risk/return and the downside risk has largely been removed.”

Interestingly, both of these positions are very small within his existing portfolio (unlike most of the other ideas shared by managers).  A look at the top 10 holdings (by conviction) is shown below – most of which are common among other hedge funds.  The full portfolio report can be found here:

Corvex_conviction_13f

 

Bill Ackman – Pershing Sq.:  Ackman didn’t make one mention of Herbalife (which many were expecting – possibly because participants were limited to 15min each).  But he did go into depth on JC Penny (JCP) which hasn’t been a friend to him lately.  Pershing Sq.’s full portfolio report can be found here.

Mitchel Julis – Canyon Capital:  Julis showed the Noah’s Ark cartoon to the crowd which went over big.  His idea this year is Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO).  He doesn’t say much other than it’s trading at a depressed multiple.  Interestingly, it’s been in his portfolio for years:

Full Canyon Capital Report available here

Canyon_capital_13F

The top institutional filers are below:

CCO_13F

Steven Eisman - Emrys Partners:  Eisman is bullish on US real estate but thinks Canadian real estate (and as a result the banks) are in trouble.  He thinks the US homebuilders are cheap and specifically calls out Ocwen Financial (OCN) as being especially undervalued.

 ”Ocwen is the single most powerful play on US housing and the most misunderstood.”

OCN_13f

 

The top institutional holders are:

OCN_13f_2

JAT Capital betting big on Las Vegas Sands and Akamai

John A. Thaler founded JAT Capital in 2007 after leaving Shumway Capital Partners (where he was managing the SCP Omni Fund).  JAT started with $200M in money from Chris Shumway and is currently over $3BN and closed to new investors.  JAT has been very consistent about maintaining a low net exposure and strives to have a “philosophy of making money on both sides of the book.”

For that reason, analyzing their 13F data must be done with the standard caveats.  In the last half of 2011, several media outlets saw that some of the top disclosed positions by JAT were selling off sharply (notably GMCR & NFLX) and immediately speculated about the fund “blowing up”…which turned out to be patently false because the fund’s short book (which is not disclosed) was more than picking up the slack.  That said, let’s take a look at what Thaler &Co. did in Q4.

JAT was busy in Q4 adding several new positions in the top 10 including Akami Technologies (AKAM), Ralph Lauren (RL), Union Pacific (UNP), Amazon (AMZN) and Seagate Technology (STX).  Lear Corp (LEA) and CBS were significantly increased and JAT’s well-publicized position in Baidu (BIDU) was cut back 69%:

 

Of JAT’s top 10 positions in Q3, 3 were drastically reduced and 4 were dropped entirely:

 

Akamai Technology (AKAM) is the interesting new position in Q4 as JAT came right out of the gates with a massive 9% bet, which appears to be paying off.  JAT is now one of the biggest institutional shareholders with about 4% of shares outstanding.

 

CBS (CBS) was in JAT’s portfolio at the end of 2010 and Thaler took the opportunity in 2011 to sell out of that position into strength.  It appears that after the selloff in Q3, Thaler reinitated a $38M position only to more than double it in Q4:

 

Hedge Fund Performance 2012 YTD

From HSBC’s latest Hedge Weekly report.

Compare this to the S&P (up over 12%) and Hedge Fund investors are still paying 2/20 to lag the market (….just like last year):

Fund YTD Performance %
Owl Creek 10.02%
Pershing Square 9.35%
Contrarian Capital 8.97%
Paulson Recovery 8.90%
York 8.79%
REIF B 8.37%
Greenlight 6.62%
Third Point 6.41%
Canyon 6.22%
Silver Point 5.85%
Cobalt 5.42%
Perry Partners 5.32%
Viking Global 5.09%
Paulson Credit 4.93%
King Street 4.40%
Bluemountain Credit 4.18%
Moore Macro 3.06%
Tudor BVI 2.96%
Brevan Howard Credit 2.95%
Moore Global 2.88%
Caxton Global 2.84%
Millennium 2.66%
Brigade 2.60%
Brevan Howard Global 2.18%
SABA -0.92%
Capula -0.96%
Paulson Advantage -1.02%
Winton Futures -1.62%
Paulson Advantage  Plus -2.84%

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